How it is paid for, and what it earns
Graphite is the secured side: senior debt, contracted revenue. Orange is the exposed side: sponsor equity, merchant revenue. A deal that reads mostly orange is one where you are carrying the risk.
Cumulative equity position
Every dollar below the line is capital out with no revenue behind it. The trough is the round.
Merchant exposure
Debt service coverage
Rolling twelve months, measured after ramp completes, the way a lender measures it. The solid line is the flat-rate case. The shaded band is the P10 to P90 spread that merchant volatility opens around it, which is the part a lender actually underwrites. The axis is clipped near the floor rather than run to zero, the way a coverage chart normally is.
What actually moves the answer
Swing in levered equity IRR from flexing one input alone, merchant revenue held at its base rate. Whatever sits on top is the thing to diligence.
Seed check layer
Risk-adjusted project value plus the risk-adjusted pipeline behind it, against the round on the table. Both sides weighted at the same probability.